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Explained: How "Flip" Seats Can Impact Karnataka ResultsFor the BJP-led Basavaraj Bommai government, Karnataka's electoral history points to a disconcerting fact - no party in power has come back with an absolute majority in the state in over four decades.
This revolving door trend is reflected across constituencies in the state. Between 2008 - when the constituencies were redrawn as part of the delimitation exercise - and 2018, 84 constituencies have not elected the same party candidate in consecutive elections. This is a significant chunk of the state's 224 seats, and it is these seats that could well determine whether the Congress or the BJP gets a majority in Karnataka.
That's because while larger issues such as reservations for the dominant Lingayat community or the political mobilisation of Hindutva voters play a significant role in determining election narratives, in many constituencies, it is local and hyperlocal anti-incumbency that drives the results. Surveys before the 2018 elections showed that the choice of MLA was the voter's first preference, while party and national leadership were distant considerations.
30 out of BJP's 54 seats are in Bombay-Karnataka and Central Karnataka, a region where the Lingayat community often decides the political landscape. The politically powerful community leans towards the BJP - largely drawn to the party through its leader BS Yediyurappa. The BJP government has attempted to counteract Yediyurappa's waning influence within the party with a move to increase reservations for the Lingayat community.
In other areas, the BJP's campaign, which hopes to ride on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may not work effectively. While the Prime Minister's popularity among voters helps the party sweep parliamentary elections, in the assembly election, PM Modi's campaign will not be enough.
"There is a large section of people who are enthused by Narendra Modi, but not our local candidate. They'd rather not vote for our candidate at all," says a BJP strategist in Udupi district, where three out of five constituencies have flipped between the Congress and BJP in each election.
In 2018, the BJP had won all five constituencies, but now, there are worried faces in the BJP's Udupi office. This time around, they've denied BJP tickets to incumbent MLAs in three "revolving door" constituencies. New MLA candidates could mean less local anti-incumbency. "These seats will be won on local issues only. So, our strategy would be to enhance the voter connect with the new MLA candidates," says the strategist.
Safe Seats: Few and Far Between
Very few seats can be considered safe for parties, that is, just 60 out of 224 seats are strongholds of a political party, meaning the party has not lost here in three elections. Of these, 27 are for the Congress, 23 for the BJP and 10 for the JD(S).
All 10 of the JD(S)'s safe seats are in Southern Karnataka, where the HD Deve Gowda family continues to hold sway over the numerically-strong Vokkaliga community. For the BJP, its stronghold is spread across Coastal Karnataka, where it has an edge due to a strong party structure that is intertwined with the Sangh Parivar; in Bombay-Karnataka, where the Lingayat community generally vote for the party; and Bengaluru. The Congress's strongholds are roughly evenly spread across the state, except for Coastal Karnataka, where it managed to win just three out of 21 seats in 2018.
On the other side, the BJP may be bolstered by the fact that the Congress had won 19 seats - nearly a fourth of their tally in the 2018 elections - by a margin of less than 5,000 votes.
Interestingly, the Bengaluru region, one of the fastest-growing cities in India whose reputation has been built on its dynamism, is one of the most electorally stagnant regions in the country. Here, just two seats flip between parties. 17 constituencies have become strongholds for the BJP and Congress - with strategists from both parties confident of retaining them.
Ron: The Bellwether seat
In all the chaos and commotion of the Karnataka elections, the Ron constituency has been an incredible bellwether to gauge which way the wind blows. Ron is a rather unremarkable constituency in the arid drylands of Bombay-Karnataka that often goes under the radar in the state's political landscape. However, if electoral history is any indication, this constituency holds the key for the party most likely to come back to power.
Since the formation of the constituency in 1957, the party that wins Ron has been the single-largest political party in the state.
The Congress has announced its candidates for the constituency. The BJP, however, has not, keeping Ron among a dozen constituencies where it has found it difficult to make a decision. The incumbent BJP MLA is engaged in an intra-family tussle for party candidature, and so, campaigning here has not begun.
This revolving door trend is reflected across constituencies in the state. Between 2008 - when the constituencies were redrawn as part of the delimitation exercise - and 2018, 84 constituencies have not elected the same party candidate in consecutive elections. This is a significant chunk of the state's 224 seats, and it is these seats that could well determine whether the Congress or the BJP gets a majority in Karnataka.
That's because while larger issues such as reservations for the dominant Lingayat community or the political mobilisation of Hindutva voters play a significant role in determining election narratives, in many constituencies, it is local and hyperlocal anti-incumbency that drives the results. Surveys before the 2018 elections showed that the choice of MLA was the voter's first preference, while party and national leadership were distant considerations.
- 84 constituencies have never voted for the same party since 2008 (when the constituency boundaries were redrawn during delimitation)
30 out of BJP's 54 seats are in Bombay-Karnataka and Central Karnataka, a region where the Lingayat community often decides the political landscape. The politically powerful community leans towards the BJP - largely drawn to the party through its leader BS Yediyurappa. The BJP government has attempted to counteract Yediyurappa's waning influence within the party with a move to increase reservations for the Lingayat community.
In other areas, the BJP's campaign, which hopes to ride on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may not work effectively. While the Prime Minister's popularity among voters helps the party sweep parliamentary elections, in the assembly election, PM Modi's campaign will not be enough.
"There is a large section of people who are enthused by Narendra Modi, but not our local candidate. They'd rather not vote for our candidate at all," says a BJP strategist in Udupi district, where three out of five constituencies have flipped between the Congress and BJP in each election.
In 2018, the BJP had won all five constituencies, but now, there are worried faces in the BJP's Udupi office. This time around, they've denied BJP tickets to incumbent MLAs in three "revolving door" constituencies. New MLA candidates could mean less local anti-incumbency. "These seats will be won on local issues only. So, our strategy would be to enhance the voter connect with the new MLA candidates," says the strategist.
Safe Seats: Few and Far Between
Very few seats can be considered safe for parties, that is, just 60 out of 224 seats are strongholds of a political party, meaning the party has not lost here in three elections. Of these, 27 are for the Congress, 23 for the BJP and 10 for the JD(S).
All 10 of the JD(S)'s safe seats are in Southern Karnataka, where the HD Deve Gowda family continues to hold sway over the numerically-strong Vokkaliga community. For the BJP, its stronghold is spread across Coastal Karnataka, where it has an edge due to a strong party structure that is intertwined with the Sangh Parivar; in Bombay-Karnataka, where the Lingayat community generally vote for the party; and Bengaluru. The Congress's strongholds are roughly evenly spread across the state, except for Coastal Karnataka, where it managed to win just three out of 21 seats in 2018.
On the other side, the BJP may be bolstered by the fact that the Congress had won 19 seats - nearly a fourth of their tally in the 2018 elections - by a margin of less than 5,000 votes.
Interestingly, the Bengaluru region, one of the fastest-growing cities in India whose reputation has been built on its dynamism, is one of the most electorally stagnant regions in the country. Here, just two seats flip between parties. 17 constituencies have become strongholds for the BJP and Congress - with strategists from both parties confident of retaining them.
Ron: The Bellwether seat
In all the chaos and commotion of the Karnataka elections, the Ron constituency has been an incredible bellwether to gauge which way the wind blows. Ron is a rather unremarkable constituency in the arid drylands of Bombay-Karnataka that often goes under the radar in the state's political landscape. However, if electoral history is any indication, this constituency holds the key for the party most likely to come back to power.
Since the formation of the constituency in 1957, the party that wins Ron has been the single-largest political party in the state.
The Congress has announced its candidates for the constituency. The BJP, however, has not, keeping Ron among a dozen constituencies where it has found it difficult to make a decision. The incumbent BJP MLA is engaged in an intra-family tussle for party candidature, and so, campaigning here has not begun.